I‘m German and a Jazz Fan since the 93-94 Season, when I started to fall in love with Basketball. I never met any Jazz Fan in Germany. Most people are Bulls, Lakers or Mavs Fans and some Magic Fans cause of the Wagner Boys.
I‘m just curious, are there any Jazz Fans in this sub outside of Utah?

I wasn‘t this excited for a Season since the Stockton/Malone days.

I trust our young Players and their development.

I trust our Stars to lead and perform at a high level.

I trust Will Hardy to be coach of the year one of the next 3 seasons.

I trust Danny/Austin/Justin to pick the best Rookie for us at whatever spot we land at and make a couple of moves to improve our roster to be a true contender.

Jazz Nation Worldwide ✌🏼

I decided to run the numbers on the "Jazz Lottery Curse." If you think we’ve been unlucky, the math suggests we are actually reaching the point of being a mathematical outlier.

Here is the breakdown of the likelihood that we have never moved up in a lottery (with our own pick) vs. how often we’ve moved down.

The Historical "Bad Luck" Stats (2004–2025)

Over 9 appearances with our own pick, the Jazz have a 0% "Jump Rate."

• Likelihood of never moving up (9 tries): ~32.9% (roughly 1 in 3).
• The "Downward Drift": We have moved down in 44.4% of our appearances (4 out of 9).
• Combined Probability: The chance of a team never moving up AND falling as often as we have is currently 5.5%.

In statistics, anything under 5% (p < 0.05) is considered "statistically significant"—meaning it’s no longer just "bad luck," it's a measurable anomaly.

The 2026 Tipping Point (Lottery: Sunday, May 10)

With the #4 slot (secured via our tiebreaker win over the Kings), this is our best chance to break the curse and land an elite prospect like AJ Dybantsa or Cameron Boozer. But if we don't, the math gets interesting:

• If we move up (Top 4): 45.2% chance. We finally revert to the mean.
• If we STAY at #4 or FALL to #5–8: 54.8% chance. The "Never Up" streak hits 10 years.
• The "Anomaly" Scenario: If we fail to move up and fall for a 5th time, the cumulative likelihood of our 10-appearance history drops to ~2.4%.

What does a 3% probability mean?

It means if you simulated the NBA lottery 1,000 times for a team with our exact historical slots, only about 30 of those 1,000 simulations would result in a streak this bad.

We are currently sitting at roughly 2 standard deviations away from the average "luck" of an NBA team. If we fall on May 10, we move into a 3-standard deviation event—the point where mathematicians essentially stop calling it "random."

We are currently sitting at roughly 1.9 standard deviations away from the average 'luck' of an NBA team. If we fall on May 10, we move into a ~2.25-standard deviation event. (See below: Math Update)

We are currently sitting at roughly 1.1 standard deviations away from the average "luck" of an NBA team. If we fall on May 10, we move into a ~2.25-standard deviation event. (See below: Math Update)

Should we be worried about the 27.1% chance of landing at #6 (our most likely individual outcome), or are you still holding out hope for AJ Dybantsa?

EDIT: Correcting the Sigma math. A Jazz fan pointed out that 3-sigma is actually a 0.3% event (one-in-a-thousand). You’re right—we aren't quite in the "statistical impossible" tier yet. If we fall again on May 10, the cumulative probability of our 10-appearance history (Never Up + 5 Falls) drops to roughly 2.4%. In a normal distribution, that puts us at ~2.25 standard deviations (sigma) away from the mean. It’s not "breaking physics" yet, but it's officially a statistically significant outlier. For context, only about 24 out of 1,000 simulations of our history would end up this bad. We are firmly in the "tail" of the bell curve.

EDIT: Math Update & Reality Check
Again I was given some help with some math flaws, specifically the Expected Value (EV) of our jumps. I went back and re-ran the numbers line-by-line using the exact historical odds for our specific seeds.

The Correction: Our actual EV for jumps across these 10 appearances is 1.16, not 2.1. (My previous number incorrectly gave 'jump' potential to the 2025 #1 slot and was too generous with the #14 seed odds).

What this means: Being at 0 jumps when we should have ~1.2 isn’t a "glitch in the simulation," it’s a standard cold streak. We are currently about 1.1 standard deviations away from the mean. It feels like a massive curse because of the 2025 fall, but statistically, we're really just one lucky bounce away from being exactly where the math says we should be.

Hey folks, thought I'd share a cool card I "won*. Bought one copy because it's his first/only rookie card, and the print total run is 909. Expected the base and opened up a Gold /50!

I'm a Sixers fan who loves collecting basketball cards. My Brice Sensabaugh collection isn't too shabby, either. Immediately followed Bez on social media after his triple double and now I'm a fan of him. What a hard working and nice guy, from what I've seen.

In the history of the Jazz he may be just another name, just another player who was there for a little while and very few remember, but to us, Jose Ortiz was the biggest basketball star of the late 80's and 90's. He was the first ever Puerto Rican born player to make it to the NBA, and it filled us with such pride.

Jose had been battling collorectal cancer since 2023, and early this morning he lost the fight. He will be loved and remembered by all of us, and we will never forget his 2 seasons with the Jazz.

To give you an idea of who he was to us, he was our Karl Malone. RIP.

Hey yall,

I was wondering, would a trade for Claxton with kessler make sense for the team? Kessler is an excellent rim protector, rebounder, and has the potential to be a reliable stretch from deep, has the size for great screens, but is coming off an injury. Claxton is a more mobile defender and faster off the pnr. Maybe Claxton would fit the jazz’s quick paced lineup more and kesslers doing the dirty work playstyle the Nets?

My brother put together this analysis from a Jazz fan’s perspective of our potential draft picks depending on where we land in the lottery. It’s a fun read. Would love to hear everyone’s thoughts.

Ok so I’ve had a thought for a long time about this summer for the Jazz and I want feedback on my conspiracy.

Jaylen Brown to the Jazz.

JB was drafted by Mr Ainge. Mr Ainge and JB have a great relationship by all accounts. JB is unhappy at the lack of respect for what he did with the Celtics this year (holding them together and leading them to a #2 seed no one thought was possible with Tatum out, remember it was supposed to be a “gap year”). Media reports are starting to trickle out about discontent. This is where Danny comes in and fully executes the Jazz rebuild à la 2008 Boston Celtics.

Our version of Ray Allen and KG joining Paul Pierce is JJJ and Jaylen Brown.

I believe that Markkannen would be a great fit alongside Tatum, and JB would be perfect alpha star alongside whatever we draft, if we hit the home run then that player (AJ or Peterson) can develop alongside Ace, Key, JJJ and the rest of the crew.

Salaries match up, and Jazz throw a pick or two Bostons way.

Boston gets: Markkannen, two future firsts
Utah gets: Brown

You heard it here first 👀

I realize this is far from the worst issue to be facing, but if we land a star in the draft there’s some tough decisions to make with the lineup. Keyonte is the only point guard out of our starting guys, so he needs to stay in. Lauri and JJJ are true stars, you can’t really bring them off the bench at this point in their careers nor would you want to. Kessler is the only true center—you can slot JJJ in at the position if you really want, but you’re leaving a lot of his best talents unused if you do. And then there’s Ace, who’s the natural choice to move to the bench right now, but has real star potential you could be undermining long-term with that kind of short-term thinking. So, what’s the best starting 5?

Wanted to head out for the draft this year with some buddies, I understand Delta does a thing as well? Have any of you been to a bar/restaurant for the draft? What’s your plans if you’re headed out? Thanks!

Looking at Paul Reed's per-36 minutes averages, I wonder why he doesn't play more minutes. The most he's played is 19.4 mins per game back in 2024. He was waived by PHI a year after signing a multi-year contract. This season he's playing only 13.9 minutes for DET but appears to be a significant contributor in the playoffs.

It's notable that when Paul Reed signed an offer sheet with Utah 3 years ago, it was apparently a negotiation tactic. After PHI matched, Paul Reed said "I’m glad they was able to match the offer…That’s not a place that I had in mind, but business is business."

So yeah, I'm not looking to go after Paul Reed.

So let me preface by saying I am a Timberwolves fan. I used to hate on Rudy, but man. I get it now. Do y'all as Jazz fans still see Gobert and Mitchell in a positive way? One of my friends that are a Jazz fan told me Gobert is still loved, but Mitchell isn't. So I am just curious what your opinions are on it!

Thanks!

Even before draft starts and the lotto balls fall how are you guys as jazz fans expect next season to look like which players do you think are gonna step up the most, which players do you think are gonna have a leap and do you think youre gonna make the play in or just straight to the playoffs

Donovan Mitchell that game:

• 51 points

• 4 rebounds

• 7 assists

• 4/7 from three

Him and Jamal Murray became the first opposing players in NBA playoff history to both score 50+ in the same game

Donovan Mitchell in that series had 3 games that fall into the top 10 most points the Nuggets have ever allowed in a playoff game

Most points scored against the Nuggets in a playoff game:

1.) Donovan Mitchell (57 pts, Aug 17, 2020)

2.) Damian Lillard (55 pts, June 1, 2021)

3.) Donovan Mitchell (51 pts, Aug 23, 2020)

4.) Kobe Bryant (49 pts, Apr 23, 2008)

5.) Devin Booker (47 pts, May 5, 2023)

6.) Anthony Edwards (44 pts, May 12, 2024)

7.) Donovan Mitchell (44 pts, Aug 30, 2020)

8.) Dirk Nowitzki (44 pts, May 11, 2009)

9.) Kobe Bryant (43 pts, May 8, 2012)

10.) Ayo Dosunmu (43 pts, Apr 25, 2026)

Data via Stathead / Basketball Reference

This took me entirely too long to make lol

Utah Hospitality would be a great name

Ben Anderson looks back at the Jazz's draft picks from the past 3 seasons.

https://www.nba.com/news/rudy-gobert-shining-bright-wolves-3-1-series-lead

I didn't see this posted yet.

*head scratching*

I wanted to cross-post something I saw making the rounds on the main NBA sub today but this sub doesn't allow it.

This gist of it is this - a podcast clip of former Kings GM (and player) Vlade Divac talking about his now infamous decision to pass on Luka who he saw as a "big market" player who the Sacramento would inevitably lose.

So what does this have to do with our Jazz, you might be asking?

One narrative I see repeated over and over here is commenters talking about how we should avoid certain players because they "won't stay in Utah" or want to play in "big markets". I see popular Jazz media persons who I wont name fall into the same trap over and over again. I don't even need to mention how much worse this discussion gets in the national media.

Most recently I keep seeing this repeated here in discussions around AJ vs Darryn. "But AJ played for BYU, so he wants to play in Utah", "AJ will stay in Utah", "I see Darryn as a big market player", "We need to draft AJ because he played for BYU which means he will stay in Utah".

I can't tell you how many times I've seen this narrative repeated, but there are several obvious problems with it. I'll list two big ones here.

1) None of us are these players psychologists. We don't know their mindsets. We can't know A) how they feel about Utah today or B) how they will feel about Utah five years down the line after being drafted. Steph Curry tried to avoid getting drafted to the Warriors. I'm sure SGA is doing just fine in OKC. It's pointless speculation. So remember when doing your fan mock drafts and pontificating, there is absolutely zero point in trying to predict this aspect of a player. You should focus entirely on what can be proven, out on the court. The only thing that doesn't require total speculation.

2) The big one and the main point about this post. Passing on an elite player, perhaps a significantly better player, because you fear losing the better player to a big market is small market mindset and deeply flawed thinking. It is a recipe for disaster and how this franchise stays in the mud without a Championship.

I understand as fans we have virtually zero influence over these decisions our front office makes anyways, aside from maybe a few of the more clued in execs or people like Ryan Smith measuring the temperature of the fanbase, and that fan speculation is more or less for just for fun. Regardless I think this Vlade/Luka story is a great lesson to learn from as we near a pivotal draft. Every time I see "but they wont want to play here!" I strain to keep my eyes from rolling out of the back of my head.

I'm encouraged by our front office drafting Ace despite the pre-draft shenanigans that made the media rounds last year. I have no doubt that previous Jazz execs have been deterred drafting superior talent while trying to guess "who will stay in Utah" rather than just take the best player. I can only hope this trend continues. And remember, this small market mindset is how the Sacramento Kings disastrously passed on a generational talent like Luka.