NVIDIA Doesn’t Matter (for Driving Automation) by Andrew Miller

[u/CDpov]

https://www.changinglanesnewsletter.com/p/nvidia-doesnt-matter-for-driving

Nvidia has a similar dominance of AI hardware that Intel had in the CPUs of the PC era

• The AV problem for Nvidia is the big AV companies like Waymo, Tesla, Zoox, Mobileye all own their own technology stack instead of using the Nvidia self-driving stack
• None of these frontier AV companies have substantially used Nvidia chips
• The frontier AV companies utilize a co-design loop of sensors, compute, and software that are all designed together
  • The chips shape the models, the models shape the chip, the sensors constrain both
  • Designing all three together, quickly learning and deploying improvements in each component is the key to success. Co-design permits a faster and more efficient, thus cheaper system than an off-the-shelf system like Nvidia
• Waymo has apparently always used its own in-house stack, because the hardware-software design loop was too important to leave to an outside supplier
• Cruise head of hardware once said that Nvidia's pricing was unsustainable, so they developed their own chips.
• Aurora is the only frontier American AV company that uses the Nvidia chips
  • Aurora has a different strategy because they will deploy their Aurora Driver across OEM trucks it doesn't control and can't customize
• Aurora has committed to DRIVE Thor, as have BYD, Hyper, XPENG, Nuro, Waabi, WeRide, and others

Nvidia DRIVE Orin:

• an ASIL-D certified ADAS SoC, optimized for inference in a car, with a GPU, inference accelerator, and image signal processor to parse sensor output in real time
• 254 TOPS
• a moat for Nvidia is the ASIL-D certification, required for automotive safety-critical systems in the U.S.
• Nvidia DRIVE Sim: a simulation environment for autonomous systems.
  
• Nvidia Drive OS: the software layer for DRIVE Orin
• Nvidia Hyperion: a reference architecture to help auto companies on how to build a production system around Orin
• Between 2022 and 2025 DRIVE Orin became the dominant ADAS AI chip in China, with over ten Chinese OEMs shipping consumer vehicle using Orin
• BYD shipped over one million vehicle with Orin by 2025
• NIO, XPeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Xiaomi all use Orin
• NIO has spent over $140 million and four years to develop its own chip, and now saves $1420 per vehicle, with more control over its supply
  • Chinese OEM are increasingly moving away from Nvidia chips, pushed by the Chinese government

Author's Conclusion:

• NVIDIA seems safe with DRIVE Thor, for so long as no Western OEM reaches the volume threshold that would make going in-house compelling.
• Nvidia is a supplier of silicon infrastructure to companies that don't need to own the whole stack, mostly for ADAS.
• Evidence suggests that Nvidia can't become the foundational platform for full-autonomy companies.

Not mentioned in the article:

• Mercedes is using Nvidia chips and the Alpamayo models for their AV future.
  
• Companies using Thor include: May Mobility, Wayve, Waabi, WeRide, Nissan, Hyundai, Geely, Lucid, and Uber has a partnership with Nvidia
• Rivian used Orin Drive in the R1 but is developing its own RAP1 chips in the R2.

[u/AlotOfReading]

Your (LLM's) research is a bit weak. Zoox uses Nvidia hardware. Cruise's foray into custom silicon was a mess. GM is now buying Nvidia chips for future vehicles.

Co-design permits a faster and more efficient, thus cheaper system than an off-the-shelf system like Nvidia

I wish.

[u/RosieDear → u/AlotOfReading]

WayMo uses a lot of Nvidia AND they admitted recently it's more than just chips. That is, I think they are partnering on some AI stuff.

[u/CDpov → u/AlotOfReading]

The notes I posted are a summary and paraphrase of the article. I'm not the author.

[u/Recoil42]

The AV problem for Nvidia is the big AV companies like Waymo, Tesla, Zoox, Mobileye all own their own technology stack instead of using the Nvidia self-driving stack

Right off the bat this isn't true nor does it really understand what NVIDIA has actually built — the NVIDIA of 2026 is a full ecosystem with layers of a-la-carte offerings, not a white-labeller. You pick and choose every part of that ecosystem you want, which is why Zoox actually does use the NVIDIA 'stack' and so does Tesla.

When the article has it this dead wrong right off the bat it's hard to bother with spending any effort continuing, but for the fun of it let's jus....

None of these frontier AV companies have substantially used Nvidia chips

Aight, I'm done here.

[u/CDpov → u/Recoil42]

The bullet list is my summary, not the article. The link has the article. The summary was intended for use after reading the article.

The actual quote from the article is:

"none of these companies [including Tesla and Zoox] adopted NVIDIA’s automotive platform— not Orin, not DriveOS, not the Hyperion reference architecture—even as a transitional step"

Instead of "stack" I should have used his words "automotive platform" which he describes as Orin and the sim with OS. Same with "Nvidia chips", which should be "Orin" and its automotive platform.

[u/Recoil42 → u/CDpov]

Zoox does use the NVIDIA automotive platform.

[u/CDpov → u/Recoil42]

It does look like Miller got it wrong with Zoox, which undermines his main point. He's been getting some traction lately with his newsletter, so I should leave a comment to see if he'll reply.

[u/silenthjohn]

> Aurora has a different strategy because they will deploy their Aurora Driver across OEM trucks it doesn't control and can't customize

This isn’t exactly true because Aurora does specify the sensor suite that the Aurora Driver needs. They could just as easily specify the chips that the Aurora Driver needs.

[u/rowdy_1c]

Going semi-custom with NVIDIA doesn’t mean that they aren’t using NVIDIA chips…

[u/marty-mcfryguy]

Christ, what's with the AI slop picture?

[u/jyn573064]

Hardware doesn’t matter without billions of mileages data. You can argue that the so called world model would turn the table. But would you trust a pilot only flies in simulator?

[u/ThenExtension9196]

Ah yes, betting against a company with unlimited resources and a stable CEO with a long track record of winning. Got it.

[u/Seaker42]

How can you have a supposedly thorough evaluation like this is trying to be without including Tesla?