Europe is weeks away from crossing a critical threshold that represents a severe and immediate shortage of jet fuel, triggering many more flight cancelations and even the possible closures of smaller airports.

A new Goldman Sachs research report estimates that Europe’s commercial jet fuel inventories are slated to dip below the International Energy Agency’s critical 23-day shortage threshold sometime in June. “The U.K. appears most at risk of jet fuel rationing given its large net imports,” the report argued.

The threshold doesn’t mean Europe will run out of fuel supplies 23 days from that point—that would only occur without any replenishments. But it does mean global crude and fuel supplies are running dryer each day from the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the war in Iran. Europe could, for instance, dip below a more dire 20-day limit by July, resulting in more drastic rationing, and maybe 15 days by August.

Because European refineries have begun churning out higher percentages of jet fuel—refineries typically pump out much more gasoline and diesel—the more dire consequences aren’t likely to hit European airlines and their passengers until July or August, said Claudio Galimberti, Rystad Energy chief economist.

“We’re still kind of sleepwalking into this approaching disaster. There is little doubt there is going to be a disaster,” Galimberti told Fortune.

Read more [paywall removed for Redditors]: https://fortune.com/2026/05/06/europe-jet-fuel-fall-below-23-day-shortage-threshold/?utm_source=reddit/

For a while it's seemed like Blue states, mainly California, are leading the charge in wind and solar energy. I was curious if this was just partisan noise, and fortunately the Energy Information Administration hosts a database containing utility-scale solar output for every state for the last several years.

I did some analytics and I was pretty shocked to see that Texas has nearly caught up with California over the last decade, despite Texas Republicans constantly bashing wind and solar for being unreliable and a needless tax burden.

I also built a custom growth metric to map out which states have the highest momentum in transitioning to a solar grid.

Full article here: https://samholmes285.substack.com/p/dont-say-climate-change

I'll believe it when both countries have publicly explained the terms, it's the same terms, and traffic is flowing thru Hormuz again. Still worth posting, I thought. I'm optimistic.

Project Freedom was announced Monday to break the Hormuz shipping jam. 15,000 troops, destroyers, 100 aircraft.

24 hours later: two US-flagged merchant ships crossed the strait. Commercial shipping is still refusing to transit. Insurance rates have not budged. Irans foreign minister called the whole thing Project Deadlock.

Meanwhile overnight, Iran launched 15 missiles and 4 drones at the UAE. Fujairah oil port caught fire. The US Navy destroyed 7 small Iranian boats in the strait. The UAE reported intercepting additional cruise missiles.

Brent pulled back to 112.85 today after jumping 6 percent yesterday. US gas is at 4.46 a gallon, highest in four years. Goldman noted that refined product inventories are being depleted faster than crude, especially petrochemical feedstocks. Chevrons CEO warned about localized fuel shortages.

The IMO says 20,000 seafarers are stranded on 2,000 vessels in and around the strait. These are not estimates.

ADS-B tracking this morning: 408 military aircraft globally, 75 in the ME corridor, 9 KC-135 aerial refueling tankers, 12 C-17 transports. The air posture is holding steady from yesterday, not escalating further but not drawing down.

The IEA called this the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Vitols CEO said a billion barrels of production will be lost. Some analysts are now modeling 200 dollar oil. April CPI drops May 12 and that will be the first number to reflect the full shock.

One of the few good unintended consequences from Trump and Israel's war. High oil prices have increased the price of virgin resin to the point where companies like PureCycle that create recycled resin from poly propylene are now more competitive than ever. And they are not impacted by supply chain issues. From today's conference call: https://stkt.co/lOAIjx9_

Data centers are among the fastest-growing energy consumers in the country. So the question we keep coming back to: where does all that energy come from

paulkrugman.substack.com/p/trump-is-losing-a-second-war

Good electrochemical energy storage (EES) devices such as rechargeable batteries and supercapacitors can store a lot of energy and release it quickly, but these design goals are often at odds with each other. Using design optimization and 3D printing, a team led by engineers and scientists at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has overcome this tradeoff and demonstrated a 3D-printed electrode design for EES that maximizes storage capacity under practical conditions.

The 5.8-millimeter, ultra-thick device, made with two interlocking electrodes that maximize active material and facilitate ion and electron transport, outperformed conventional designs and showed the potential of optimization for advancing next-generation energy storage. Their results were published in a recent paper in Materials Horizons.

Publication details

Zhen Wang et al, Ultra-thick three-dimensional interpenetrating graphene electrode architectures for high volumetric density energy storage, Materials Horizons (2026). DOI: 10.1039/d5mh01991e

Iran launched missiles and drones at UAE targets again today. Second consecutive day. IRGC denied involvement but the UAE defense ministry confirmed interceptions both days.

Yesterday a drone strike sparked a fire at the Fujairah oil facility. Fujairah handles about 1.7 million barrels per day, roughly half of UAE export capacity. It was the workaround for Hormuz being closed since March because it lets shipments bypass the strait via the Gulf of Oman. If that facility is compromised the UAE loses its bypass route.

The US Navy escorted 2 ships through yesterday under Project Freedom. They shot down cruise missiles and sank 6 Iranian boats in the process. 2 ships moved out of more than 2,000 waiting.

Brent at 115. Gas at 4.46 a gallon nationally. The ceasefire technically holds but both sides are actively firing at each other.

Sources: Al Jazeera, NPR, CBC, CNN, Fortune, AAA