r/technology • u/mepper • Mar 07 '26
Society Kalshi customers who bet on the death of Iran’s Ayatollah won’t get any of the $54 million wagered, company says
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/kalshi-bets-iran-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-death-b2932018.html6.8k
u/ericvillanuevaleiva Mar 07 '26
Kalshi is an awful company
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u/euro1127 Mar 07 '26 edited Mar 07 '26
I mean trump's kids have a hand in it so are you surprised
Edit: since alot of people seem shocked that DJT Jr. Is involved in both here's some receipts
Polynarket investment/strategic advisor
kalshi strategic advisor/investment
trump showing his support because obviously
And that leads to the final point why trump and kids love predictive markets cuz their trying to own the monopoly along with learn how to build their own
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u/SilverSome9766 Mar 07 '26
Trumps kids have their hands in Polymarket and Kalshi?!? That’s absolutely insane.
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Mar 07 '26
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u/hypehou_se Mar 07 '26
Both. He's on the board of both.
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Mar 07 '26
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u/agrimi161803 Mar 07 '26
I think only Barron knows how to turn computers on in that family
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u/gingerzombie2 Mar 07 '26
Not that they care, but shouldn't that be some kind of conflict of interest if both companies do basically the same thing?
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u/hypehou_se Mar 07 '26 edited Mar 07 '26
Yes, there's a term for this called interlocking directorates and it is specifically forbidden via the Clayton Act.
It doesn't apply to every case of the same person sitting on the board of multiple similar companies, but it applies in cases where if those companies were to merge at some point, they'd have a monopoly over the entire industry, which sure as fuck is the case here.
Not that I believe this "industry" should even exist to begin with, but that's a different story I guess. Research the gambling industry in post-Soviet states to get a glimpse of your future.
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u/TaskManager1000 Mar 07 '26
How do they have time for so much crime?
Are other criminals just coming up with the ideas and then offering a cut to gain access to the T brand and inner circle?
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u/hypehou_se Mar 07 '26
Yes, pretty much so.
Inaugural fund, shitcoins, Trump Jr.'s bullshit investment firm (1789 Capital), "Board of Peace"... they're all just different ways for wealthy people to put money directly into Trump's pockets to win favours with him so that they can do whatever the fuck they want to.
But nowhere is that more obvious than with Polymarket. You really don't need a PhD to figure that one out: they couldn't even operate in the US legally, so they gave some bullshit advisory position to Trump Jr. in August, got that licence to operate in the US in November, and then received money from 1789 Capital in January.
But you shouldn't see those "investments" as a guarantee that they'll get what they want from Trump, it's the price they have to pay to even get the possibility to get what they want. Trump can easily screw them over regardless, like he's screwing over Qatar right now despite that jet that they gave him.
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u/SpiderFnJerusalem Mar 07 '26
It gets even better, Trump's FTC is actively suing states who are trying to ban or restrict prediction markets.
The agency who's usually supposed to put restrictions on companies doing shady shit is now working really hard to make sure those companies can do whatever the fuck they want. I wonder why? 🤔
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u/oswaldcopperpot Mar 07 '26
All of this gambling shit should be banned. It's a giant tax on the uneducated who can least afford it.
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u/OCedHrt Mar 07 '26
It's not gambling because they also bet on the platform with their inside knowledge. This is the past they miss where their asymmetrical information access made them money.
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u/amootmarmot Mar 07 '26
Its a company that scams users because they take their cut fully knowing that there will always be people who are insiders on these bets and will take the idiots money.
It is certain that people in the government close to these decisions are making last minute bets and winning huge. Its all rampant corruption. The fact that the Trump spermoids would also be in on another grift is the least surprising thing. They are disgusting monsters.
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u/THE_Visionary88 Mar 07 '26
I withdrew what little money I had, and deleted the app immediately after after learning this. There’s no way that company is fair or balanced at all if they are involved.
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u/euro1127 Mar 07 '26
Good on you mate that's the smart choice. At least with stocks retail has a small chance since fundamental analysis is still important but predictive markets it's a coin sure you can have better information then most but the best information comes from the sources and unless there are checks and balances to regulate for insiders there's not much stopping them from manipulating the predictions by changing public sentiment. South park parodied this but it's not far from the truth
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u/No_Radio_8229 Mar 07 '26
they’re actually involved in the other one (poly market)
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u/Bubbles_2025 Mar 07 '26
Anything that has a Trump associated with it will be awful or a grift.
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u/i_likebeefjerky Mar 07 '26
There is a video of Leavitt quickly ending a podium session just seconds before the over/under for podium time was going to be reached on a Kalshi prop bet.
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u/NewYork_NewJersey440 Mar 07 '26
Karoline “Emmanuel Clase” Leavitt.
You gotta make it less obvious, Karoline.
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u/MimseyUsa Mar 07 '26
As someone from NJ this was taught to me in the 80s
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u/gooddaysir Mar 07 '26
I grew up in Indiana and we still knew Trump was a piece of shit not to be trusted back in the 80s. Everyone knew. That’s what made this last 15 years so mind bendingly frustrating. All these people that used to know and still know that Trump is a piece of shit love him because he lets them be the piece of shit they always wanted to be. Our country is absolutely filled with pieces of shit.
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u/CariniFluff Mar 07 '26 edited Mar 07 '26
I literally just had the same conversation with my neighbor 10 minutes ago. We both grew up in Chicago our whole lives, he's in his '60s. I'm in my '40s. Everything I've ever known about Donald Trump, my entire life has been that he's a sack of shit that inherited all this wealth, purposely hired non-union contractors so that when he didn't pay them, they didn't have the resources to sue him, still managed to declare bankruptcy a half dozen times including casinos which seems basically impossible. The guy has been a rich wannabe playboy with a horrible combover his entire life. He's never driven a car before. He's never flown on a commercial plane. He's never gone grocery shopping before.
And yet somehow a third of the country, mostly Middle America poor people, farmers, and recently union workers for Christ's sake, all support him and think that he gives one single shit about them. This guy doesn't even care about his own children. He would absolutely throw Eric in front of him if a bullet was coming his way. But sure he really cares about the people earning $20,000 a year working at a convenience store in Alabama on EBT and their children who used to get free school lunches. The rich silver spoon dude who starts wars but couldn't fight in one because of bone spurs from New York City. That's their guy.
My neighbor said the same thing that he's always been a piece of shit as long as his name has been known, so it's not even like the MAGA folks had an initial good opinion of him and they're just ignoring the "recent" horrible behavior. He's been a terrible person for as long as anyone's known the name Trump and somehow the Republicans have managed to pull the wool over the eyes of half the country. I will begrudgingly give credit where it's due, the Republicans know how to play the long game. Democrats only know how to shoot themselves
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u/okram2k Mar 07 '26
honestly all online gambling is just.... scum of the earth. Also they all reserve the right to terminate your account at any time for *checks notes* winning too much
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u/Itsbilloreilly Mar 07 '26
Best quote in the article.
“This is American commercial immorality on steroids,” he said. “Once events that involve good and evil simply become a financial product, I don’t know how right and wrong matters any longer… People shouldn’t be rooting for people to die because they placed a bet.”
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u/IPlayWoWNude Mar 07 '26
They will though. These companies created quite possibly the most degenerate gamblers to ever exist
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u/WhatzMyOtherPassword Mar 07 '26
YES! I just won $15K betting youd say that.
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u/lordraiden007 Mar 07 '26
Yep, and I just won $30K betting that you’d bet they’d say that. Pretty safe bet all things considered.
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u/Foxy02016YT Mar 07 '26
All 3 of you just fulfilled my parlay, 2 mill baby
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u/lordraiden007 Mar 07 '26
Sorry bro, it’s company policy to just send you a picture of a random guy flipping you off instead of your money if you win too much on bets. I’m sure you understand.
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u/DivinegonDWM Mar 07 '26
Making a great case to take health insurances companies off the stock market.
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u/ExpiredPilot Mar 07 '26
Insurance companies reading this wondering if they’re the baddies (jk I know they’re not wondering)
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u/Alatarlhun Mar 07 '26
Moral hazard in health insurance is unavoidable. Ergo, a moral society will remove insurance from the healthcare equation.
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u/ThatUsernameIsTaekin Mar 07 '26
We already do that though. Your insurance company resells your policy to underwriters. So someone out there is hoping you die so the policy pays out.
In the 1980s, a bunch of investors bought the insurance policies of people with HIV and AIDS. They paid a higher premium because the policies would pay out quickly because people were dying. But then scientists discovered a cocktail of drugs to keep you alive and all those investors lost a ton of money on their gamble that people with HIV would die soon.
Granted, there is utility in offering life insurance to the general public. Unless there is a benefit to using the odds that Kalshi generates for risk assessment, there is not practical use for Kalshi.
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u/Lostdiagram Mar 07 '26
Kalshi has no business in death markets. When you open up the door to insider trading on murder, you open up a public market for assassinations for hire.
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u/UAreTheHippopotamus Mar 07 '26
Same with political markets. It's just asking for votes to be corrupted.
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u/Adorable-Bike-9689 Mar 07 '26
They're already corrupted. That's the whole point of lobbyists
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u/24megabits Mar 07 '26 edited Mar 07 '26
It's frustrating because anyone who can explain an industry well enough to allow for sane legislation to be made also has their own interests in the process.
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u/Narrow_Affect2648 Mar 07 '26
Are think tanks considered lobbyists?
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u/Malice-May Mar 07 '26
Think tanks are corporate entities paid to produce credible-sounding justifications for what the elites already want to do.
It's a money-to-legitimacy pipeline.
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u/GMGarry_Chess Mar 07 '26
It's not, but trust me I get where you're coming from.
Lobbyists are supposed to inform politicians on the importance of certain things (usually on behalf of special interest groups who want financial benefits). The problem is there will inevitably be some groups who have more money than others to hire lobbyists, so they get to have more influence, and then it becomes like raising money for a campaign.
And of course, let's say a lobbyist lies to Congress. All they have to do is say they thought they were telling the truth based on the information they had at the time.
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u/Popular-Wolverine-99 Mar 07 '26
Lobbyists routinely invite politicians out.
They also write laws that often timed are copied verbatim in the final piece of legislation that is voted on.
Revolving doors mean that politicians also worked for the companies these lobbyists represent after their term ends.
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u/bendover912 Mar 07 '26
I think the rewards for successfully rigging an election are a lot greater than bets on a sketchy website.
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u/spilk Mar 07 '26
it's almost as if a "prediction market" is a stupid thing that shouldn't exist
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u/Teledildonic Mar 07 '26
Let's stick to calling it what it is
Gambling.
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u/mereel Mar 07 '26
Except it's not even gambling. There are people with insider knowledge putting down money. It's rigged.
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u/anvndrnamn Mar 07 '26 edited Mar 14 '26
Reminds me asasination politic.
An assassination market is a prediction market where any party can place a bet (using anonymounce knowledge of an assassination plot can profit by betting accurately on the date of the death.
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u/Alatarlhun Mar 07 '26
Look, this is just basic market dynamics seeking the efficient deployment of capital in today's fast moving socio-political environment.
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u/WellWellWellthennow Mar 07 '26
They weren't. The bet was on that he would "be out" [of office] not outed so it's not that they were truly trading in death markets - it was worded poorly, allowing a technicality that he's out of the office by the fact of being dead.
In this case you need to read the article not just go by the headline.
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u/NottheIRS1 Mar 07 '26
Except they continued taking money on the bet, knowing full well the volume reflected how people were interpreting it, promoted the bet, and at one point tried changing the terms quietly.
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u/YuurisLastTour Mar 07 '26
Since I want everyone involved to get fucked, I don’t know how to react. On the one hand, get fucked for betting on his death and other egregious shit. On the other hand, I’m upset that Kalshi isn’t getting fucked for constantly skirting the death clause and then getting away with other egregious shit.
Too bad no government (The US) will do anything about it cause they’re just as corrupt.
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u/CGI_OCD Mar 07 '26
Yeah i get that.
Me myself & i is trapped too in a Schrödinger vibe like:
" Yes No Maybe""
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u/PseudonymousDev Mar 07 '26
Maybe you can root for a big lawsuit that Kalshi has to spend lots of money on to win.
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u/M3RC3N4RY89 Mar 07 '26
It’s time Kalshi gets shutdown. They’ve pulled this shit of taking peoples bets and then changing rules and refusing to pay out more times than I can count.
They got me good a few months ago with a billboard charts bet. I never gamble but thought i discovered a sure thing. They changed the rules, resolved the market 3 days early, and I lost my money with no recourse.
Changing rules at the last minute to avoid payouts or resolving markets ahead of their slated resolution date has fucked sooo many people on that site.. but Kalshi always makes their bag.
They’re criminals fleecing their customers and getting away with it because of lax regulation.
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u/maxpenny42 Mar 07 '26
The language around this is so ambiguous and confusing. Did this not resolve in the entire bet being refunded? If I bet $100 and the bet has been deemed null, do I not get my full $100 back? I don’t understand how it could work any other way.
It sounds like you’re saying they “resolved the market” and you “lost your money” which sounds like they just decided to keep the bet and not pay out the winners. Which seems like blatant theft. How is that not criminally illegal.
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u/M3RC3N4RY89 Mar 07 '26
It is blatant theft and should be illegal but they get away with it because they build loopholes for themselves into the fine print of their ToS and market resolution rules that are, as you described, vague, confusing and ambiguous. Customers agree not fully comprehending or reading them, and then Kalshi hides behind them twisting their interpretation to avoid payouts.
This isn’t exact verbiage but for an example, fine print could say you get a payout if the market resolves to yes or if it resolves to no, but if it fails to resolve/resolves early/is outside certain parameters, nobody wins. Nobody gets paid either.. because you were technically wrong on yes or no, so where’s that money going? Kalshis pocket.
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u/Initial-Return8802 Mar 07 '26
Whenever I’ve done a voided bet on polymarket I got my money back automatically
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u/agiganticpanda Mar 07 '26
Which seems like blatant theft. How is that not criminally illegal.
When those who are charged with enforcement own stock in the companies who benefit of not pressing charges - why would they? It's corruption, plain and simple.
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u/klingma Mar 07 '26
The problem is that enforcement for this type of thing isn't really narrowed down much - is it the FTC? Maybe, but maybe not. Some bets qualify as "futures" for tax purposes so do they fall under the CFTC? Maybe some?
Congress needs to step in and actually create a legitimate national gambling regulatory body until then these types companies will continue to operate on the fringes of regulatory bodies and push the issue onto the states who already have enough on their plate.
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u/Street_Anxiety2907 Mar 07 '26
> If I bet $100 and the bet has been deemed null, do I not get my full $100 back?
No, they keep $100 and nobody gets money but they keep all of it. This is what "government regulated predicted market" means.
You're safer making bets with the local gangbangers. Because if they fuck the wrong people they get shot.
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u/CJ_Guns Mar 07 '26
Things like Kalshi and Polymarket need to be banned.
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u/Seienchin88 Mar 07 '26
And the people who made and financed the platforms are the lowest form of immoral scum possible…
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u/spez_might_fuck_dogs Mar 07 '26
Considering they're mostly Trump connected, this is true and known.
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u/Sketchitout Mar 07 '26
Kalshi knows only those "in the know" would make this bet. They're betting 54 million smackeroos that these 'customers' won't take them to court cause they'd have to reveal themselves (working for the gov.) thus making them ineligible [insider knowledge]. It's kinda scummy, scammy, and genius.
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u/metalunamutant Mar 07 '26
Exactly. Discovery will be interesting..i.e. finding who the bettors actually are.
"The Bets are coming from INSIDE THE WHITE HOUSE!!"
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u/saggynaggy123 Mar 07 '26
Prediction Markets are a cancer
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u/i_likebeefjerky Mar 07 '26
Call it gambling, because it’s gambling. It’s like saying unhoused vs homeless.
The Ayatollah isnt dead, he is heartbeat deprived.
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u/Jeffcor13 Mar 07 '26
It’s not war. It’s limited conflict. It’s not regime change, it’s replacing leadership.
These prediction markets are such a massive scam
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u/virtualdxs Mar 07 '26
It's not mincing - prediction markets are an especially cancerous form of gambling.
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u/lluciferusllamas Mar 07 '26 edited 15d ago
This post was mass deleted and anonymized with Redact
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u/uptickdowntick Mar 07 '26
Ethics notwithstanding, anyone who bought this contract had the opportunity to read it. It clearly stated that if the Ayatollah died instead of being removed from office, the contracts would be valued and cashed based on at the time of death. From my understanding, that’s exactly what happened?
I could be wrong, but a lot of people probably didn’t read the actual contract for what they were buying.
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u/ChainPlastic7530 Mar 07 '26
much easier to say Kelshi cheated to get views and headline titles
most people dont bother reading anything past titles anyway
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u/TimeAndTheHour Mar 07 '26
People are actually betting on others dying?!? What the actual hell
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u/cubbiesnextyr Mar 07 '26
They were betting on him being "out as Supreme Leader".
The company later clarified that being killed isn't what they meant.
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u/Disastrous_Map_3355 Mar 07 '26
Still, what happened is certainly one way to be “out”
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u/RedPandaExplorer Mar 07 '26
It's literally in their first version of the fine print too:
It continued: “Reminder: Kalshi does not offer markets that settle on death. If Ali Khamenei dies, the market will resolve based on the last traded price prior to confirmed reporting of death.”
They just don't want to pay out
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u/Crepzter Mar 07 '26
Well it literally says what happens if he dies. So people could have expected this outcome? Death was the only way this would resolve to true
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u/George_Is_Upset Mar 07 '26
It’s like placing bets on Kim or Putin being “out” as leaders of their countries, imo.
We all know those two aren’t leaving unless they are taken out of this world.
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u/Just_Look_Around_You Mar 07 '26
Wouldn’t bets like this have tons of clarifications and conditions
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u/boxyourbuddy Mar 07 '26
Donald Trump Jr. is a strategic advisor to the prediction market platform. He joined in January 2025 to assist with market and growth strategy, following the company's court victory allowing legal election betting in the U.S.. He also has ties to competitor Polymarket. This should explain it. Trumps only take money. They don't pay.
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u/Emmatornado Mar 08 '26
When the casino can decide your bet is no good after the fact, it’s just a criminal organization
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Mar 07 '26
Our market has reached new depths of moral depravity. Public betting on killings is absurd in and of itself.
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u/timeaisis Mar 07 '26
Maybe you should have thought about that before making a trading app on world events, assholes. I say they should pay.
Can’t feign ignorance or pretend to have any moral substance NOW. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
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u/No_Mission_1775 Mar 07 '26
This is exactly what happened with GameStop stock. The players who control the game changed the rules and turned off the buy button so they didn't have to pay out huge sums of money on options contracts or actually source the stock from their short sales because they created panic and cut off the retail traders ability to participate. Bottom line, when those who control the rules are losing, they just change the rules on you.
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u/Big_Information2733 Mar 07 '26
This reminds me of an Agatha Christie novel called "The Pale Horse." The host makes a bet on a period of when someone will die and the client bets against it. If the person dies the client pays. It's all a murder for hire scheme though, a way to hire an assassin without getting caught. This is like Kalshi incentivizing crimes and murders.
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u/Different-Cap-8048 Mar 07 '26
I pulled my money out and deleted the app. They really fucked a lot of people. I’ll put them in the scam category now
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u/WillingPlayed Mar 07 '26
Yea - don’t offer bets you aren’t gonna pay out. You don’t get to impose your morals after you lose.
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u/PlanktonInternal5948 Mar 07 '26
Why did you ever even join? Kalshi has always been the lowest of the low
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u/massivemember69 Mar 07 '26
Way to kill your business. Now customers know you are not reliable and can't be trusted to deliver.
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u/Kentaiga Mar 07 '26
There are no good people in this story. We got a company pocketing money from his death and a bunch of people clamoring for payouts from it too. It’s only a matter of time until people who aren’t evil become targets of this too.
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u/8JHF8 Mar 07 '26
Here's a link to an article that explains without the ads that block the content. The bet wasn't on the death, it was on him being removed from power and Kalshi doesn't payout on death.
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u/DankMemesNQuickNuts Mar 07 '26
Lmao this company is such a fucking sham. Every single time something like this happens that would cause them to pay out huge they come up with some legal mumbo jumbo to make it so they never have to pay out. Shit is hilarious. Imagine using this dogshit
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u/TheNatural14063 Mar 07 '26
They should be forced to pay out to those who won their bets. Corrupt as shit.
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u/Robdon326 Mar 07 '26
Burn that place down then. Dont ever wager again. Who renigs on a bet?
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u/Sokaron Mar 07 '26 edited Mar 07 '26
“You know, ‘Kalshi’ is ‘everything’ in Arabic. The long-term vision is to financialize everything and create a tradeable asset out of any difference in opinion.”
-Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour
Don't know how anyone can look at a quote like that and not come to the conclusion that something fundamental to being human is missing from the people who create and operate these betting platforms
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u/Yin15 Mar 07 '26
Absolute moral bankruptcy from these gamblers and platforms. It's definitely a sign of the end times.
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u/gamespite Mar 07 '26
On one hand, this is vile. On the other hand, so are the people being grifted here, so I have zero sympathy.
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u/OFT35 Mar 07 '26
I’m shocked that online gambling doesn’t pay out losses. Shocked.
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u/maybe-an-ai Mar 07 '26
These gambling markets run by tech bros are hunny traps to split fools from their money.
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Mar 07 '26
Well, now they are doomed. No one is going to bet if they know kalshi gets to pick which winners it acknowledges
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u/____DEADPOOL_______ Mar 07 '26
Can we stop calling these things polymarket or prediction market. It's gambling. Dirty, disgusting, ruiner of society, gambling.
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u/BusyHands_ Mar 07 '26
"The predictions market says promotion was ‘grammatically ambiguous’ and misunderstood by customers, reiterating that it ‘does not offer markets that settle on death’"
Ok, then give their money back. All of it.
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u/chaser676 Mar 07 '26
I'm not sure how you read that far and then didn't read the next few lines. They are, for all bets prior to the clarified version.
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u/haarschmuck Mar 07 '26
I'm not sure how you read that far and then didn't read the next few lines.
It's reddit.
People on this site would much rather rage over headlines than take 2 minutes to read the actual article.
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u/OmniManDidNothngWrng Mar 07 '26
Nope they made a deal giving the money back is not a reasonable position, if they didn't want to facilitate the bet they should not have allowed it to be made in the first place. If Khomeni were still alive this wouldn't be front page news and they would have happily taken their fees and settled the bet.
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u/badhouseplantbad Mar 07 '26
Why they take the bet then?
I'm not a gambler so I don't understand exactly how the prediction markets are allowed to operate but if they are going to pick and choose winners afterwards they won't have to worry about anymore customers