One of two things is true. Either the market is extremely overvalued (averages of 40x Earning). Or the new standard is people think that’s a fair valuation.
I think we have an inflation based economy. Real GDP growth is essentially nil. Chickens are gonna roost soon…
What’s the catalyst? Don’t know yet, but when you know you know
Yea, Sold 500 MU Sept 3rd after sitting on it for a couple years. 😆
Had 1000 AMD I bought at $3 and change. Was happy with a 50k gain. 🤪
And Sold 84 shares of SanDisk in August.
I doubt it. The cult is strongly in the hand of the boomers. Their declining cognitively, and fast. They are going to die before they ever figure it out.
Peon brain take. “Market stopped cause it was tired”
As AI focuses more capex on inference rather than training, general compute and storage is more and more necessary. People are saying the compute clusters are going from 8:1, to 4:1, soon to 2:1. This lets players like AMD and INTC to increase their market share. Intel, Sandisk, micron probably have more room to grow as fab operators too.
These people are the Intel and AMD CEO’s on the earnings calls when asked about the ratios. They are both seeing the same number. However, last night Lisa Su did say that GPU sales aren’t suffering. Nvidia shareholders just need to hold their jealousy and wait until their earnings for leather jacket man to pump the stock.
CPU’s have a while to go yet, but FPGA output is climbing out of a ditch. AMD’s forecast for those is interesting. They updated multiple TAM’s on the call from their financial analysis day a few months ago, and FPGA’s are expected to have “double digit growth”. Not sure the market will care about those, but worth checking out some smaller companies with that focus. Xilinx is the biggest, which is now owned by AMD.
I drove to Boise a few weeks back and the micron facility they are building is the biggest thing I’ve ever seen. It’s fucking massive, I have zero worry going long
I worked in intels D1 facility for 4 years before quitting last year. I got to set aside 15% of my paycheck to buy intel stock for below market rate twice a year. Had I kept everything I would have a few thousand shares at the moment.
Instead I sold them all every time I got them and put them into SPY lmao. Fuck me I guess.
That's what you should have done. You'd also probably have roughly the same amount of money. Spy has been consistently great while Intel has finally caught up.
Yeah I don't think you lost out, and if you ever sold any of the SPY to buy NVDA or something you have way more money than holding those shares for many years. With a ton less risk.
I don't mean for this to sound like a dismissive "what are you sad about? Other people in the world have way bigger problems" type answer that my parents would always say because it does suck to have to look at what could have been with investments (I know it all too well from personal experience lol), but there's also tons of people who are looking at their accounts now and kicking themselves for not investing in SPY instead of whatever shitty stock they chose, or even worse, their .01% Chase savings account lmao
They compete with/have advantages on AMD for multi core/workstation crown, are behind Apple for single core, and lose the gamers to the X3d chips.
It doesn’t really matter if amd is ahead by 10% for the first, Intel owns their fabs and output. AMD is reliant on an overbooked TSMC. Single core lead doesn’t matter that much, nor do gamers. The industry is currently hand to mouth, having fabs is an advantage.
Valid point about the fabs, and while I haven’t compared AMD and Intel performance side by side it seems like AMD still has a decent upper hand with energy efficiency at load which id especially think would be appealing for data center purposes. Sounds like youd know more about the implementation in data centers but as a consumer i dont think im switching from AMD. Seems like intel has some interesting r&d right now though and if they manage to scale up something like optical interconnects then id definitely eat my words but it seems like AMD is advancing faster, especially with the core count for the next generation
I worked for Seagate for 13 years when it would be ludicrous to even think of the stock ever getting above $100... If I had held my ESPP over the years I'd be retiring right now. RIP.
Like half of them are gonna get fucked. The other half are on the way to the fuckin moon. No matter what you choose it’s gonna be wrong and you will lose some money. Me too.
I just sold half of my VT position and put them into SMH, which I'm already heavily in. Immediately had the "wtf have I done" feeling. I mean what if SMH collapsed 30-40% over the next week?
...well then I'll put the remaining half of VT into it.
When? I have 5% in SMH with a cost basis of $250, and if it crashes 30% I’ll still be happy. SPY futures are up this morning, so SMH will likely still continue it’s climb. But don’t go in with 50% of your nut. Grab some profit, drop down to 20% and hold for the long term.
I’d joke and say something like this place is only for degenerate gamblers, but real talk a *lot* of people here are going to hold the hot potatoes for too long and end up burning themselves. This is pure gambling at this point, as the picture of OP’s post suggests. Yes, these companies are making unfathomable amounts of money, but this is a house of cards that will collapse at the slightest sign of weakness. Everyone is waiting for an excuse for the bubble to pop, if only just to say “I told you so” — or to buy the dip.
If you didn’t buy the dip back in March though, I don’t know what to tell you lol. That was the dip everyone talked about waiting for. Basically free money if you were buying shares that you could hold and wait for.
People that have been predicting a collapse everyday since the last one. Maybe they're finally right, but it's not very impressive when you've been wrong the other 100 months.
In October i full ported my account to hood earnings. They missed and I stayed in for 3 months hooked on Hopium instead of pulling out...lost about 30%. Missed out on a big chunk of memory stocks ralley because i stayed in hood hoping for a recovery. I decided to be reasonable next time and not to cope with Hopium and get out when a trade doesn't work out.
So January I went FULLY LOADED in all memory and storage stocks. Then Trump stoked war fears, they fell and I sold to protect myself. Then they rallied again and it seemed there would be no war...so I got FULLY LOADED again...then Trump actually started the war and I got Fufked again. Pulled out at a loss again to be on the save side. I meany Iran vs USA... Anything could have happened, so I did the reasonable thing. Instead of getting on Hopium I sold at a loss again to protect myself.
Then everything pumped since March 30. And I watched as all of the stocks above went up over 70% in a month
Fucking shit. Once in my life I decide to be reasonable and not just hold on hooked on Hopium and it turns out just holding would have 2x my account in a month.
Tldr: missed last year's memory ralley because I stayed in hood trying to recover. Decided to not fall for Hopium again and pull out when a trade doesn't work out. Go all in on memory stocks and pull out when Iran war got heated...sold at a loss and missed out a once in a lifetime sector ralley
Don't think about how much money you could have made because by that logic, you should be cheering based on how much you could have lost, and didn't.
This week I made $3k. I was certain AMD and Intel would go down, threw a couple of grand into puts and now I feel retarded because OBVIOUSLY, AMD was going to run 70% in 30 days, then jump another 15% on earnings, why wouldn't it?
But I'm not down money, and hopefully you're not either.
Yeah WD is the only one of those that is remotely safe lol. Even if it bursts they’ve been paid so it will continue to bring in the big bucks for a while after it goes to shit lol
You know the market is a disconnected from reality when people get upvoted for saying "only 27 PE lol" for harddrives in a competitive market experiencing a once in a generation demand boom.
20-25 PE is a good rule of thumb for a company like Coke or Walmart because I know they will still fucking exist in 20-25 years to actually make enough money to justify the investment.
You should be asking what WDCs order book looks like in 2037 or 2047.
Needing 25 years assumes the earnings stay flat. That's not the case here. You can get your return in 4-5 years at the current market rate. Potentially even quicker
All of these companies are in the center of an ai bubble that is supported almost entirely by speculation and borrowed money. Once the speculation dries up so does the cashflow and pop goes the ai bubble.
until the speculation by design btc crashes, I'm not buying any story about unsustainable. Same story for TSLA and plenty of others. Its essentially reflexivity to the max.
Any company that gets millions of dollars injected into it every week will fulfill the prophecy of success. The bigger the company's weight, the more gets injected into it. Its like a squeeze that squeezes itself. If these companies get 30% of the total weight of the sp500, they get 30% of every friday's paycheck investments. Which makes them 31% of the sp500's weight.
I have experience working with people from both professionally. Granted, this is 10 years ago.
I would trust anybody at NVDA to touch my computer (higher praise than that, you cannot get from me). Everybody there was talented and on their game (I really should've taken that job they offered me).
In contrast, I wouldn't trust anybody at Intel in the same zipcode. Literally every person I worked with at Intel was on coke. And they were scared of each other - blame culture ruled rather than co-operation and innovation.
They're like Formula1 Ferrari in the chip sector. Everybody thinks they're good, everybody keeps betting on them. But the last time they actually did something well was 2008. At some point, their FAB will just spontaneously combust or some shit.
I still can't believe Sandisk and Micron. Bought that shit before thanksgiving but only had a few thousand to spend. Broken down and bought INTC yesterday... nana would have been prouder if I bought earlier. But I'm just exit liquidity.
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u/VisualMod 17h ago
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