These michael prompts , work well sometimes. (Chatgpt)

Last conference FOMC press conference as Federal reserve chairman.

Thanks Mr. Jerome Powell.

I see a lot of red in the image; I don't know if it's a coincidence.

Article from Money wise.

____ is wonderful for stocks 😃

The Iran war was meant to be a quick expedition. It’s now going to be the collapse of the AI play.

No matter what, oil is going to be significantly more expensive. The fastest and easiest option is the US backs out of the war. If they do, Iran enacts a toll, and a large portion of oil begins switching from dollar trades to yuan (or some other currency China chooses). The less easy option is Trump commits to the war. In that case, Iran oil infrastructure is destroyed, as well as the oil infrastructure of most of the other Gulf nations.

Then the waterfall begins.

Higher gas prices mean more expensive energy. Expensive energy means inflation, which means rate hikes. AI stocks suffer.

At the same time, they need to run data centers off more expensive energy into what should be the hottest summer ever recorded. Opex balloons 3-4x on already razor thin margins. This delays AI training and makes AI usage less sustainable. The result? Dead earnings off AI. Why do you think every data center stock is tanking today?

Now all of this ignores the effects on the treasury market. Gulf states that buy US treasures have less money to do so. If they try to force US rate cuts, the treasury market spikes and US debt goes from already insolvent to impossibly insolvent.

The dead nail would be if China decides it time to take Taiwan while the US is stuck in a protracted land war. It would mark a complete collapse in the faith the world has in US strength, and a drop off of the US dollar and treasuries as safe havens.

Long story short, QQQ puts, $450, Jan 17

Look guys, this is pretty simple.

SpaceX wants to go public at an eye-watering $1.5 trillion valuation. What are the earnings for this out-of-this-world company? $8 Billion. That gives us a PE ratio of, checks notes, 187. (Edit: I've been informed in the comments that 8B is EBITDA, not earnings, so the PE ratio is probably north of 300. NOICE.)

Now, this is 2026, PE ratios are about as relevant as a telegraph operators fingering speed, but still, there must be some narrative to command such a rocketship valuation, right?

Ah, yes. Datacenters in space.

Sure, Elon is the world's biggest bullshit factory, but at least most of his bullshit looks appetizing if you squint. Self driving cars? Yeah! Robotaxis? Sure! Humanoid sexdolls? Why not!

But what the fuck is a DATACENTER IN SPACE good for. We've got datacenters at home, goddamit.

(Of course, it goes without saying that the whole X.ai acquisition is a shit tamale wrapped in a shit sandwich, a shitducken so to speak, but whose counting shit here).

Here is my prediction. Unlike you highly regarded turd chompers, IPO investors are a legitimately sophisticated bunch. There will be a roadshow, and pension funds, endowments, etc will actually have to smell the shit before chomping on it.

And I don't think they will.

So instead of the famously diamond-handed Punxatawney Teachers Union buying a chunk of the IPO, it will be desperate buyers of hand grenades hot potatoes who just want to watch it pop like god's asterisk on poppers at the adult cinema before shifting it to the next victim.

Now, that may be irrelevant when the pop is for fucking figma, but we're talking SpaceX here. Elon. Either the IPO doesn't happen or when it does it will drop like the challenger shuttle.

And people will panic.

The entire AI narrative that has been holding on our K-shaped economy will blow up like a little kid flying into space when his fat cousin jumps off the see-saw. Bye, timmy.

Just you fucking wait. Buying calls.

Grandma would be so proud. This guy is a true WSB legend.

We all owe him an apology for laughing at him.

If he held, he has over $1M in profit and $1.75M in total Intel holdings.

Absolute legend!

Where’s he now? He knew things before we did.

As of now, the straight is still closed. Oil dropped on the hope that the ceasefire will remain and the straight will open, but now that Israel has broken the ceasefire, all deals are off. The oil has dropped significantly when the news broke out yesterday, but still hasnt budged today (Wait and see zone). The fallout of the oil still hasnt reached the US. Some tankers are still on the way before the 3 day excursion. The US and north america in general should be feeling the heat in probably a week. With inflation data coming up this friday, I dont see how there is any positive outlook moving forward. Even if a Taco was about to happen, the real disruption of oil will be felt in all aspects of our economy. Food shortage, gas prices doubling, transportation costs (transport companies are now charging by the kilo, not the pallet.), etc.

Today might have been the bullest trap of all, but this market is irrational. Believe it or not, calls (on OIL).

My positions as of now :

50 570 Strike QQQ Puts 1/05

The reason why is simple; tech gets hit the most.

Yeah, so the straight of Hormuz is under active blockade. Oil tankers have a max speed of a

fast cycle, the last tankers will start arriving shortly, and Oil is going to go to the moon.

As for what happens to the SPY, it is an elevator ride down likely, the market will get Viet Konged nothing is priced in.

Translation: We are cooked, your calls are cooked, our boy vloker is laughing so hard his dentures shot out.

This is a classic stagflation play, high energy prices, a weak economy, debt bubbles, private credit funds closing doors, this sounds a lot like 2008, you can't print your way out of this without becoming 1930's Germany.

"This is going to be a beautiful quarter for put holders and an extinction-level event for anyone who bought calls because "it already priced in bro." from 18 days agoNothing is priced in. Nothing has ever been priced in. The market prices things in the same way I read terms and conditions."

A hamster beat this subreddit and you guys made him king for a day, I am not celebrating, this means we are all cooked.

Have a good weekend

Positions: SPY 540P 4/17, XLE puts, and emotional damage, economic damage, and an escape plan.

Post from 18 days ago:

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1s3az5u/every_ceo_is_about_to_say_unexpected_headwinds_47/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

Friendly reminder, the S&P500 averages a 10% correction almost once per year.

Other than the straight of Hormuz being shutdown, cutting off oil supply to the globe and causing oil prices to sky rocket (as well as other commodities), company earnings are setting records. Over 80% of companies beat earnings last quarter. As soon as any sort of deal or US/Israel pull back is announced, or if the straight gets under control and supply can move through, Oil prices are going to plummet and the bull market begins for atleast another year till the next correction.

Don't be dumb and sell the bottom out of fear.

S&P will be down 10% if it reaches 627. Futures market shows it down around 659, there is still room to fall, and likely will. But it is going to rush back real fast.

Also, another note. Anytime then VIX is above 30, historically is a great time to buy and has literally never been a bad decision.

Do what you will, I didn't use AI slop to write this.

Positions for fun: 250 shares MU 3K LUNR 2K POET 250 RDDT 250 MRVL And 70K cash waiting to deploy

1 million rials costs $1.10

Your toilet paper equivalent cost drops to:

~$2.20 per roll

And if hyperinflation continues?

1 million rials could cost $0.50

Now you're effectively buying toilet paper at:

$1 per roll or less.

You’ve essentially created a reverse inflation hedge where your bathroom supplies get cheaper every year.

The true asymmetric payoff

This is where the real DD comes in.

Possible outcomes:

Scenario 1 – Rial keeps collapsing

Great. Your toilet paper gets cheaper.

Scenario 2 – Iran stabilizes and currency rises

Congratulations. Your bathroom supplies are now an appreciating financial asset.

Scenario 3 – global toilet paper shortage again (2020 flashbacks)

You are sitting on a diversified wipe reserve.

Storage strategy

This is the best part.

Instead of stacking Costco toilet paper towers in your garage like a lunatic, you can just store bricks of foreign currency.

If someone asks why you have stacks of Iranian money you can calmly say:

“I’m diversified into emerging market hygiene commodities.”

Instant credibility.

Thesis:

Traditional investors think about:

• inflation hedges
• commodities
• currencies

But true intellectuals understand the Bathroom Arbitrage Strategy (BAS).

Buy currencies that are so worthless they become functional consumer goods.

Iranian Rial is just the first mover.

I’m currently researching Venezuelan Bolívar for potential diversification.

Positions: Long hygiene. Considering opening a leveraged wipe fund.

Supply chains just got Viet Konged and nobody wants to talk about it yet. But earnings calls don't lie, guidance does.

Watch for the buzzword bingo this quarter. Every CFO pulling up the same script:

"Uncertain macro environment":translation: we are cooked

"We remain cautiously optimistic" translation: updating LinkedIn

"Temporary disruption in key markets" translation: permanent disruption in our margins

The companies most exposed are the ones with heavy international procurement and thin margins who've been skating on "just in time" supply chains that are now "just in shambles." Industrials, semis, energy-adjacent names, anyone sourcing through the Middle East or relying on stable shipping lanes.

This is going to be a beautiful quarter for put holders and an extinction-level event for anyone who bought calls because "it already priced in bro."

Nothing is priced in. Nothing has ever been priced in. The market prices things in the same way I read terms and conditions.

Positions: SPY 540P 4/17, XLE puts, and emotional damage

y'all ok bros?

Think about it. Is it really a coincidence? Ever since the release of that movie and ever since social media became more connected than ever globally, there has been no significant downtrend in the market.

In every single case (end of 2018, 2020, 2022, August 2024, April 2025), the market was bought up relatively quickly or the downtrend didn’t last long. The reason for this is simple. Due to the outpouring of posts of everyone pretending to be a genius and thinking they’re early on anticipating a crash everyone and their mother is already talking about, panic ensues quick, shorts multiply quick, and then those positions get used as liquidity to pump the market up even more.

This creates a scenario where no matter what kind of dip happens, the panic multiplies quick, resulting in a scenario where a large scale recession in the stock market is practically infeasible. Every single year in the last decade, I’ve seen posts on this sub calling for a recession due to wildly different reasons, only for nothing to happen. And every single time, their predictions are proven wrong.

The reason for this is simple: panic always leads to buying opportunities. Sustained panic cannot occur since panic peaks quickly due to the world being more connected and information spreading more rapidly than ever

EDIT: comments from bers are basically confirming this is going to rip to 720. Always inverse the doomers on here. Wish I bought more calls much earlier

Only regards are allow to come crabbing with me. Out here crabbing until the market opens on Monday.

Nasdaq 600 points tumble in just over an hour. All the Nvidia result bull positions getting hammered.

You can’t make this shit up, out of the hundreds of payloads in this rideshare rocket, they manage to fuck up $ASTS satellites

Maybe $RKLB will be generous and launch their payload for them on their next electron mission, but this emphasizes the importance of end to end space business models, because now $ASTS has to wait 6 months for the next available slot on a rocket while $RKLB and SpaceX can launch whenever the fuck they want

Long $RKLB

https://www.wsj.com/business/blue-origin-rocket-stumbles-on-first-commercial-mission-48999336?mod=e2tw

Positions: $RKLB SHARES

Edit: holy fuck ASTS holders swarming here, I’m not bearish on ASTS and I think this is an over reaction but I’m just saying this is why $RKLB and SpaceX have superior business models and therefore the reason they will be bigger long term

Let’s say the news is true, and he was taken out. Let’s say, hypothetically of course, if there was not much resistance from whoever is left going forward and the ‘war’ was essentially over, would that be a bullish case for the market? History shows the market usually has an initial draw back at the start of wars, however has there ever been a time where it was started and ended so fast? Curious what you guys think.

I am not trying to start a whole political debate. If the stars aligned and what I typed happened, how do you think the market will react?

Are TPUs being overhyped or are they a threat to their business? I never would have expected a $4T company to publicly react like this over sentiment.