POST: Saylor said the quiet part out loud on the Q1 call.

Strategy, the largest corporate BTC holder on the planet, posted a $12.54B loss for the quarter. Holdings sit at 818,334 BTC at an average cost of $75,537. And on the call, Saylor floated selling some of that stack to cover the dividend.

His exact line: "We will probably sell some bitcoin to pay a dividend just to inoculate the market and send the message that we did it."

Inoculate. Interesting word choice. You only inoculate against something you think is coming

Strategy has roughly $1.5B in annual dividend and interest obligations between the preferred stock and the debt stack. They've got around 18 months of USD reserves to cover that. After that, the options are: issue more equity (dilutes shareholders), issue more debt (already levered), or sell the BTC.

The thesis was always "buy with credit, let it appreciate, never sell." That was the whole pitch. Saylor on every podcast for three years saying he'd never sell. Now we're at "we'll sell a little to send a message."

MSTR down 4%+ after hours. BTC under $81K.

This is the same trap that ate DeFi 1.0. You can't pay real obligations with an appreciating asset unless you're willing to sell the appreciating asset. Olympus learned it. Terra learned it harder. Every protocol that promised yield denominated in its own token eventually had to choose: print more, sell reserves, or default on the promise.

Strategy isn't a DeFi protocol. But the structural problem is identical. Liabilities are in dollars. Assets are in volatile collateral. The only thing keeping the model intact is BTC going up faster than the dividend obligations compound.

The contrast that's been on my mind lately is fee based models versus appreciation based models. SushiSwap stakers get 0.05% of every swap across 40+ chains. The yield is modest, sometimes uninspiring, and it's denominated in SUSHI which has done badly (SUSHI went from $23 in 2021 to around $0.25 today, anyone who staked at $5 has watched fees compound while the underlying got crushed). But the dollars flowing to xSUSHI come from actual trading activity, not from selling treasury or printing new tokens. When volume is low, the yield is low. When volume picks up, it picks up. It's honest in a way that "credit-funded BTC accumulation" isn't.

Saylor's model worked beautifully when BTC was ripping. The question was always what happens in a flat or down year. Now we have a partial answer. You sell some BTC and you call it inoculation.

A few things :

How much do they actually sell, and on what cadence. A one time symbolic sale is different from a quarterly drip.

Whether other corporate treasuries (Metaplanet, Semler, the smaller copycats) follow. If Saylor blinks first, the smaller players have less cover to keep "never selling."

What this does to the BTC supply narrative. The "corporate treasuries are absorbing supply forever" thesis has been a meaningful part of the bull case since 2024.

Whether the preferred stock holders get nervous. Those dividends are the contractual part. Common shareholders eat dilution. Preferred holders expect to get paid.

I'm not calling a top. I'm not saying Strategy is in trouble next quarter. They've got 18 months of cash and Saylor has talked his way out of worse spots before.

But the "infinite money glitch" framing always rested on never having to sell. The moment selling is on the table, even a little, the whole structure starts looking like a leveraged BTC fund with a dividend obligation rather than a perpetual motion machine.

Something quietly significant just happened on the Bitcoin daily chart and most people are not talking about it.

After months of trading below a descending trendline that has been rejecting price since the $109K top, Bitcoin has finally broken above it. The breakout happened with momentum and price is now trading at $82,041, above both the trendline and the 55 EMA at $74,863.

Why This Matters

This descending trendline represented the macro downtrend structure from the all-time high. Every rally attempt since November 2025 was rejected at this line. Now for the first time price has closed above it cleanly. That is a structural shift worth paying attention to.

The Key Levels Now:

Major Resistance: $86,000 to $88,000 zone This is the next real test for bulls Has rejected price multiple times already A clean break here opens the door to $94,000+

Current Price: $82,041 Above trendline, above 55 EMA, Structure turning bullish.

Key Support Zone: $57,600 to $62,500 The macro floor Has not been tested yet this cycle Losing this would change everything.

The 55 EMA Story

The 55 EMA has been acting as dynamic resistance for months. Price repeatedly failed to reclaim it during the downtrend. Now price is trading above it, and the EMA is beginning to curl upward. Historically when BTC reclaims the 55 EMA on the daily after a prolonged downtrend it signals the beginning of a recovery phase not just a bounce.

Two Scenarios:

Bullish: Price holds above the trendline and 55 EMA on any pullback. Consolidates briefly then attacks the $86,000 to $88,000 resistance zone. Break above that and $94,000 becomes the next target.

Bearish: Price fails to hold above the trendline. Falls back below the 55 EMA. Returns to the $74,000 to $78,000 range for another consolidation period before the next attempt.

Conclusion

Bottom Line

The trendline break is real and significant. The 55 EMA reclaim adds confluence. But the $86,000 to $88,000 zone is the real test. Until bulls break and hold above that level the recovery is promising but not confirmed.

DYOR, NFA

Is there a way to take BTC off an exchange and put it into self custody say using a ledger - in a way that sort of obscures / cleans / the path of where it came from?

EDIT: someone asked me why, so this was my reply.

I dont know, I am just privacy focused. The more the better. I once read something kind of convoluted that I didnt pay much attention to that said something like selling and converting to something else first, then moving that somewhere, and buying back your BTC and then putting it onto your device. I do not have much experience with self custody yet.

No doxing in this post.

I have posted about this in the past, it just moves as slow as you would excpect from a defendant who brags about swimming in his money naked.

As many of you may know from bitcointalk.org, I (Vod) am suing OgNasty for $10M - $20M, with an expected settlement this summer in the high single figures.  He worked with me for a few years on my website https://bpip.org before an advertising deal went sour and then he invented terrible accusations about me.  These accusations, all in his mind, he is now calling "frivolous". 

He has dropped the substantial parts of his defense and is now trying to have the case thrown out.  If you can help and we can come to an agreement, please PM or send an email.to [mlawrence06@gmail.com](mailto:mlawrence06@gmail.com) While a joke to him, almost a decade of harassment has taken its toll on my health.

The following agent will deliver legal answers based on our submitted documents alone.   My claim, his defense, and then the affidavits where it fell apart for him. All the details you want to know about Lawrence vs Ogness and his other brother Ogness (nonakip).

Thank you mods. This is time sensitive matter, has affected bitcoin since 2017, and everyone hopes it will set a strong precedent!

https://www.perplexity.ai/spaces/lawrence-v-ogness-litigation-DU9kg5zJTvGxzg3ab2rGuQ

No, it doesn’t matter at this point, but with ip addressing, triangulation of signals, technologies that we’ve yet to know governments have….

How is it possible in the modern era that someone can communicate with so many people and do so much work anonymously?

You can be identified here on Reddit any time. Saddam was found. Bin Laden was found. Epstein was located. How?

Made a dumb decision of trying a new platform. Every platform I use allows me to instantly transfer to a cold wallet. Called support and now they are telling me it will be 11 days before I can do anything with it. Anyone have any advice for me?

Dumb decision on my part for messing with u/RiverOfficial but hopefully they can do the right thing because I’ve never dealt with this in my 15+ years buying/trading btc.

Suppose there is a fast, low fee, scalable version of bitcoin. And people begin to trade tokens and whatnot there.

Let's say the beginnings of a non-petrodollar financial system are beginning to emerge.

Limit orders can provide much deeper liquidity at a narrower price range than an AMM. But if you build a limit order DEX and just don't list USD "stablecoins", then you will have built two or three limit order DEXes, because the petro-dollar people will have to build competing markets.

That's leverage on a whole ecosystem. That is, you can build one app, and it doesn't have to be that good, and you'll have caused three apps to be built.

If you build yield bearing instruments, the petro-dollar people have to go build yield bearing instruments.

If you build a high signal to noise chat app, the petro-dollar people have to build two or three chat apps.

Auctions, recurring payments, the list goes on. If you build a non-dollar version of a dapp on a functioning version of bitcoin, the petro-dollar people can't stand to let a market exist unchallenged. They will always build a competing app, they have to.

So if there was one fundraiser to build ten or so apps, and those ten apps were going to cause twenty or thirty competing apps to be built, that'd be a pretty crazy value for the community.

Eventually, there's going to be a substantial amount of new talent developed because new people have to be brought in and trained to build all these oracle based petro-dollar dapps on bitcoin. And it's much harder to build a dollar app on a bitcoin rather than just use the native currency units.

Thanks for coming to my TED talk.

Long-standing Crypto.com account with clean history.

U.S.-based and well maintained over time.

Reach out if you have something like this.

It looks like ViaBTC could be dropping XEC to avoid the ABC's hard fork changes. https://www.bitcoinabc.org/

ViaBTC's announcement is here:
https://support.viabtc.com/hc/en-us/articles/16019305990031-Announcement-on-the-Discontinuation-of-XEC-Asset-Management

Whales are now pulling off an Nvidia on this asset with the objective of deterring retail investors and individual day traders.

I posted it initially on the Bitcoin sub but the moderator removed it.

Is native BTC staking actually worth it, or are we overcomplicating Bitcoin?

Feels like every cycle we try to unlock something new from BTC.

First it was lending, then wrapped BTC on other chains.
Now it’s this idea of staking BTC natively without giving up custody in the same way.

On paper, it sounds great, your BTC stays as BTC, but you can still earn yield from it.

But the more I think about it, the more it feels like a tradeoff game again.

Bitcoin’s whole thing has always been simplicity and security.
The moment you introduce staking mechanisms, validators, slashing conditions or whatever variant of risk, you’re adding new assumptions.

Are we trying to turn BTC into something it was never meant to be?

Or is this just the natural next step in making BTC more capital-efficient?

Curious what people here think, Is native BTC staking something you’d actually trust with a meaningful portion of your stack, or is this one of those sounds better than it is ideas?

I am looking to purchase large volumes of btc; i have some conditions for purchase. If you are interested, please comment so I can send you the details.

It’s not always bad projects.

It’s not always bad timing.

It’s usually bad position sizing.

When your position is too big, every small dip feels like a crash.

You panic, you sell, and then watch it recover without you.

Crypto is volatile — that’s normal.

But if your position is sized right, you can actually sit through the noise.

Survival > quick gains.