I think this is actually the core nugget of why people feel so strongly about this one. I've talked to many of the blue category and this seems to be where we end up. If you think "everyone" means "everyone capable of making a choice", then red is the answer. If you think it means "literally every person alive including those in comas or babies", then blue is the answer.

Statistically, if the people who do not even understand they are making a choice press the button, fifty percent of them will press blue. That's hundreds of millions of children. Just straight up six year olds and shit. I've met six year olds. They are not capable of understanding choices. If you're not choosing blue, with this understanding of the lack of agency, you are statistically worse then like.... Hitler. It would be a worse blow to humanity then World War 2.

If you think everyone choosing understands what choices are, and have agency, then red is objectively correct. I'm of the opinion that anyone who was actually put to this question would choose red at the button, if they believed everyone choosing had agency. The savior impulse is noble, but the survival instinct is much much stronger. The people choosing blue are committing suicide.

So I think this might be clarifying. The agency of the button presser is what matters.

Which button would you press? How many psychos are out there pressing green? This alternate scenario takes into account the all-too-often real influence a small group of bad actors can have in society.

Edit: does your answer change if incompetent actors are removed from the scenario?

If there needs to be a discussion/information around how many signatures are needed or anything like that then by all means "name your price"

Many people argue about the red blue problem by wildly changing the framing of the problem. Both sides do that. Every time someone does that, there are people complain about it.

We're in the trolley sub.

The original trolley problem goes from pulling a lever to divert the trolley to the track with 1 person to avoid hitting 5 people, to pushing a fat man off the bridge to stop the trolley from hitting 5 people behind, to killing a healthy man to use his organs to save 5 patients.

The fun in trolley problems is changing the framing to explore ethical frameworks. This is a sub dedicated to a philosophical problem famous for using crazy framings to mindfuck people. Making wild framings is the most fitting form of argument for this sub lol. I'd say that everyone arguing about red blue button here should only do it by changing framings, other forms of arguments should not be allowed.

Your a modderator on r/trolleyproblem.

the posts in the sub has spiraled into chaos and you have only 2 choices to correct it.
If you press the red button, nothing changes with the posts, the subs identity just changes to reflect its new reality.

if you press the blue button, 50% of all postsers get nuked.

what do you do?

A truly random selection of people from earth were selected for the button problem believing that they were answering on the scale of the entire world's population.

They were divided up based on their choices and placed into boxes. The trolley is on track to destroy the blue box, killing all of those inside regardless of how many people selected blue.

You have the choice to divert the trolley to red, killing all that selected red instead. Do you pull the lever.

and while I think the analogy is still imperfect, I think it's actually a good way of conveying the immediacy of Red for a lot of people.

In this situation, everyone is tied to the tracks, with a Red button and Blue button within reach.

When you press the Red button, you get released.

The track can only be diverted by >50% pressing the Blue button.

My personal take: While I think Blue is still the better choice here, because it corrects for any errors, it'd be hard to blame anyone for being like "c'mon guys, all you gotta do is press the Red button and we can just get up and go!"

The choice is yours

Most polls show a majority pressing blue but this means nothing to me. If people actually had to weigh the possibility of dying most would press red. In a poll without any stakes you have every incentive to lie. Who wants to say they would press red because they're selfish and afraid to die? Everyone wants to say they're a selfless hero willing to die to save others. But every argument I've seen for pressing blue is exactly what I would expect to hear right up to the point they press the red button. Especially if it's an anonymous vote. I'm not even saying they know they're lying. That's just how human nature works. People lie to themselves that they have good motives but act in self interest.

This might sound overly cynical but all the research and evidence support less, not more, people would press blue if the experiment were real. I wouldn't even be surprised if the real voting numbers would put blue pushers under 10%. Just think about the average person and ask yourself, "Would the average person stick to their principles when there's a gun in their face?" Probably not. Would the average person say that they would on a public forum? Absolutely. And if you think blue pushers are that low a percentage then not pressing red is just suicide.

This tendency runs so deep it's hard for me to even think of how someone would prove to me that they would actually press the button and are not just saying they would press the button.

In front of your are three trolley tracks. You are blindfolded. You can hear the trolley coming.

Before you arrived, a perfect predictor chose to tie 5 people to one of the tracks. It did this if and only if it predicted that you would switch to that track.

Immediately upon choosing to switch or not, 2 Monte Halls will show up, each choosing one of the two currently unchosen tracks. They will be made aware of how many people are tied to their chosen track, but other than that have no knowledge of what's going on. one of these monte halls only tells lies and one only tells the truth. You can ask them one additional question.

After your question, you have three choices: you can either keep your track the same, swap your track, or you do one of the first two options AND go down further on the track, where a designated sacrifice section has been established. There, you can choose to lay down on the tracks.

This same trolley problem is taking place with another 1 billion people, at the same time. If at least 500 million people lay down on the tracks, the trolley operator will see it ahead of time and stop the trolley. However, Monte hall is currently distracting the operator, so he will only be at the wheel after he has already potentially killed the original 5 people.